The Unequal Burden: Where the Gap Is Widest

Nearly all of the world’s unelectrified population, around 80%, lives in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

In 2023, electricity access in SSA hovered near 51%, meaning roughly half of the region’s population remains off-grid.

Some countries have especially acute needs. In Nigeria, 86.6 million people remain without power; in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), 79.6 million go without; and in Ethiopia, the figure stands at 56.4 million.

Together, these three nations represent more than one-third of the global access gap.

The divide between rural and urban areas is equally stark: about 80% of people without electricity live in rural communities, where grid extension is often prohibitively expensive and logistically complex.

The data

Scale and trend

• After a setback in 2022 (global unelectrified rose to ~685m), progress resumed in 2023—but the deficit remains heavily African. Sub Saharan Africa hosts ~80% of people without electricity and needs faster connection growth than population growth.  

• Sub Saharan Africa access rate ~51% (2023). That implies about half the population—hundreds of millions—still lacks reliable power.  

Top access-deficit countries (2023)

• Nigeria: ~86.6 million people without electricity

• DR Congo: ~79.6 million

• Ethiopia: ~56.4 million
  Together, these three countries account for over one-third of the global deficit.  

Urban–rural divide

The electricity access gap in Africa is overwhelmingly rural. Four out of every five people without electricity—about 480 million of the 600 million unelectrified—live in rural communities.

These areas are often far from national grids, with low population density and challenging terrain, making traditional grid extension costly and slow.

In many cases, the per-connection cost of rural grid expansion can be two to three times higher than in urban areas, according to World Bank data.

What solutions are scaling

Grid connections and densification

Mission 300 expects 50% of new connections from national grids, contingent on utility reforms, loss reduction, and cost-reflective tariffs with targeted subsidies for the poor.

Countries including Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, and Zambia are pursuing sector reforms to crowd in capital.  

Mini-grids

The World Bank estimates solar mini-grids could be the least-cost solution for up to 380 million Africans by 2030 if action accelerates (policy clarity, standardized procurement, concessional capital, and results-based financing). 

Case studies—from eastern DRC’s Nuru to park-linked hydro-solar hybrids—show how reliable off-grid power cuts diesel costs and boosts SME productivity. 

Solar Home Systems (SHS)

SHS continue to drive first-time access and are part of the IEA’s projected 2023–2024 rebound in connections in SSA.

Pay-as-you-go models reduce upfront costs and help households build a clean credit history.

Outlook to 2030: what to watch

• Connection pace vs. population growth: In 2023, SSA added ~35 million people to electricity access, but the population grew by ~30 million—net progress was only ~5 million. As such, the pace must at least double to align with SDG7.

• Grid + distributed parity: Expect a hybrid build-out: utility grids in dense corridors and mini-grids/SHS for last-mile communities; policy choices will determine how fast private platforms can finance portfolios. 

• Macroeconomic headwinds: Inflation, debt distress, and FX volatility still slow procurement and raise the cost of capital, making concessional finance and guarantees even more important.